AIDS infection estimate drops 40%Radical revision: U.N. figures indicate number of new cases peaked in 1998, deaths in 2005.

By Jia-Rui Chong, Thomas H. Maugh IiLos Angeles TimesPublished on: 11/21/07

The United Nations on Monday radically lowered years of estimates of the number of people worldwide infected by the AIDS virus, revealing that the AIDS pandemic is waning for the first time since HIV was discovered 26 years ago.
The revised figures, the result of much more sophisticated sampling techniques, indicate the number of new infections peaked in 1998 and the number of deaths peaked in 2005.
The new analysis shows the total number of people living with HIV has been gradually increasing but at a slower rate than in the past.
UNAIDS estimated about 2.5 million people will be infected with the virus this year —- a 40 percent drop from the 2006 estimate, in a report to be issued today.
The report also says about 33 million people worldwide are infected with the virus, compared with last year's almost 40 million estimate.
Reports have portrayed a pandemic spiraling out of control, but improved methods of counting AIDS victims have unveiled a different picture.
The new estimates also reflect improved treatment rates and changes in sexual behavior in some affected regions of the world.
"For the first time, we are seeing a decline in global AIDS deaths," said Dr. Kevin De Cock, director of the AIDS department at the World Health Organization.
The numbers have been highly politicized because they are used to govern the distribution of the aid being poured into the problem by industrialized countries —- about $10 billion this year.
Dr. James Chin of the University of California at Berkeley, a former WHO AIDS expert who has been tracking the AIDS epidemic since it first emerged in California in the 1980s, has been arguing for years that the UNAIDS figures have been inflated. He estimated the total number of cases worldwide at between 20 million to 30 million.
UNAIDS has "been overemphasizing and exaggerating numbers in an effort to get more and more money," Chin said.
Funding could change, based on the new estimates, said Dr. Roger Detels, a UCLA epidemiologist. "Funding for any public health issue is basically a political issue."
He cautioned the reduced numbers should not be used as an excuse to dismiss concerns about the pandemic.
"Even though the estimates are lower than we had previously thought, they're still pretty significant," he said. "You're still talking about prevalences in sub-Saharan Africa where you've got over 20 percent of adults infected with HIV."
Detels noted that getting accurate numbers is difficult in any epidemic.
"You want to raise public concern enough so they'll do something," he said. "On the other hand, you don't want to overestimate because people get fatalistic about the possibility of doing something."
Health officials say the rate of new infections has declined in several countries in both eastern and western Africa due to widespread changes in sexual behavior.
The bulk of the apparent decrease comes from improved techniques for counting cases.
The new prevalence numbers, in contrast, were based on data obtained in house-to-house surveys in 30 high-prevalence countries. The surveys included both extensive questionnaires and the drawing of blood samples.
Results from one such study in India, released earlier this year, cut the estimated number of cases there from 5.7 million to 2.5 million. Researchers previously said India had the most cases in the world.
The revision affects past prevalence numbers as well. A 2002 UNAIDS report, for example, estimated a worldwide total of 42 million cases. The new report says the actual number that year was only 30 million.